Watching UNO hockey get manhandled for two consecutive games in St. Cloud this weekend, I couldn’t help but notice how few quality scoring chances the team was able to put together. On the flip side, the Huskies seemed to have a high-probability chance every minute or so. Both teams have played difficult schedules, yet the Mavericks have won many more games that St. Cloud. Meanwhile, on the stat sheet, UNO has much higher season shot and save percentages than St. Cloud, although SCSU’s possession is clearly better than UNO.
So… what’s going on? Is it just luck? Is UNO slumping and SCSU streaking? Is youth finally catching up to UNO and experience paying off for SCSU?
To answer these questions, I took a look at all shots taken this season by every NCHC team. Thanks to College Hockey News, I can now do that for multiple situations (5v5 and power play), and I can also see results of each shot.
There are some interesting observations to be made from looking at shot results. The chart below lists each team’s shot results as a percentage of the total shots they take:
Shot results – All Shots
Team | Blocked | Wide | Hit Post | Saved | Goal | Total | % on Goal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Cloud | 19.6% (315) | 23.2% (372) | 1.0% (16) | 50.9% (817) | 5.2% (84) | 1604 | 56.2% |
Colorado College | 24.1% (335) | 19.4% (270) | 0.9% (12) | 47.8% (715) | 4.1% (57) | 1389 | 55.6% |
Miami | 22.9% (417) | 21.1% (384) | 1.3% (24) | 50.1% (912) | 4.6% (83) | 1820 | 54.7% |
North Dakota | 24.5% (442) | 20.0% (362) | 1.2% (21) | 48.7% (880) | 5.7% (103) | 1808 | 54.4% |
Minnesota-Duluth | 22.6% (435) | 22.5% (434) | 1.2% (23) | 48.9% (943) | 4.8% (93) | 1928 | 53.7% |
Western Michigan | 23.4% (357) | 22.4% (342) | 0.6% (9) | 48.5% (742) | 5.2% (79) | 1529 | 53.7% |
Denver | 23.7% (400) | 21.8% (368) | 1.4% (24) | 47.8% (807) | 5.3% (89) | 1688 | 53.1% |
Omaha | 24.7% (372) | 22.5% (339) | 1.2% (18) | 46.0% (693) | 5.7% (86) | 1508 | 51.7% |
First, some minor details. More of Omaha’s shots get blocked than any other NCHC team. Meanwhile, St. Cloud has the fewest amount of shots blocked. However, UNO and North Dakota lead the league in percentage of shots that result in goals. The problem for Omaha is that they take fewer shots than anyone in the league save for Colorado College. And, if you add goals plus shots saved, to count all shots that make it on net, UNO is dead last with 51.7%. Who’s first? St. Cloud, with 56.2%. Even the hapless Colorado College Tigers get 55.6% of their shots on net.
So, let’s isolate even strength vs. power play situations.