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2017 NCHC Season Stats & Predictions (Jan. 22)



Team GP Goals ForGoals A.Shots ForShots A.Shot %Save %Possession %PreseasonPredicted FinalReal Pts
Minnesota-Duluth 16 55 35 499 456 11.02% 92.32% 52.3% 33 (4) 52 (1) 35 (1)
Denver 14 37 26 459 391 8.06% 93.35% 54.0% 47 (2) 44 (2) 29 (2)
North Dakota 14 43 36 446 375 9.64% 90.40% 54.3% 57 (1) 42 (3) 20 (5)
Omaha 14 48 49 398 436 12.06% 88.76% 47.7% 30 (6) 39 (4) 22 (4)
Western Michigan 14 39 40 405 409 9.63% 90.22% 49.8% 21 (8) 38 (5) 23 (3)
St. Cloud State 16 42 48 501 487 8.38% 90.14% 50.7% 45 (3) 32 (6) 19 (6)
Miami 14 35 43 386 448 9.07% 90.40% 46.3% 32 (5) 31 (7) 18 (7)
Colorado College 14 25 47 353 444 7.08% 89.41% 44.3% 24 (7) 14 (8) 8 (8)

Updated 01-22-2017. All predictions +/-2.475 points.

This chart predicts the final points each NCHC team will earn in the 2016-17 season. Goals for, goals against, shots for, shots against, shot percentage, save percentage, and possession data are real game data.

"Preseason" notes the predicted final points I made prior to the 2016-17 season.

"Predicted Final" represents to-date results of a regression model to predict final points/standings.

Final results of the 2015 model.
Final results of the 2016 model.



More NCAA Hockey Analysis




More NCHC Analysis
Read more NCHC articles and analysis throughout the season.


When Corsi Bites Back
Why no college team should ignore possession.


PDO in College Hockey
PDO is a misunderstood stat in NCAA, but context is key.

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. PossSea. Pts.Model
14-Novat OmahaW321193210.53%96.88%10.53%96.88%37.30%353.5
25-Novat OmahaL046353311.43%81.82%11.11%89.23%45.40%334.9
311-NovSt. Cloud StateL037231913.04%63.16%11.69%83.33%47.80%331.5
412-NovSt. Cloud StateL01425374.00%89.19%9.80%85.12%45.70%324
52-DecDenverL01321264.76%88.46%8.94%85.71%45.6%320.3
63-Decat DenverL01320365.00%91.67%8.39%86.89%43.9%316.5
79-Decat MiamiT11127363.70%97.22%7.65%88.58%43.7%414.8
810-Decat MiamiL023203310.00%90.91%7.89%88.89%43.0%416.2
96-Janat Minnesota DuluthT122184511.11%95.56%8.17%89.90%41.2%518.1
107-Janat Minnesota DuluthW32125278.00%96.30%8.15%90.43%41.8%820.5
1113-JanOmahaL02528287.14%82.14%8.05%89.77%42.6%818.9
1214-JanOmahaL02432296.25%86.21%7.85%89.50%43.5%818.1
1320-Janat Western MichiganL02435325.71%87.50%7.62%89.35%44.3%817.2
1421-Janat Western MichiganL00325310.00%90.32%7.08%89.41%44.3%813.6
1527-JanNorth Dakota
1628-JanNorth Dakota
1710-Febat Denver
1811-FebDenver
1917-FebMinnesota-Duluth
2018-FebMinnesota-Duluth
2124-FebWestern Michigan
2225-FebWestern Michigan
233-Marat St. Cloud State
244-Marat St. Cloud State

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Running SH%Running SV%PossSea. Pts.Model
128-OctWestern MichiganW33135268.57%96.15%8.57%96.15%57.40%361.2
229-OctWestern MichiganW342352511.43%92.00%10.00%94.12%57.90%657.9
311-Novat North DakotaT11125304.00%96.67%8.42%95.06%54.00%753.9
412-Novat North DakotaW332232413.04%91.67%9.32%94.29%52.90%1054.3
518-NovMiamiT21139212.56%95.24%7.64%94.44%55.50%1246.6
619-NovMiamiT22251263.92%92.31%6.73%94.08%57.80%1438.3
72-Decat Colorado CollegeW331262111.54%95.24%7.26%94.22%57.5%1743.0
83-DecColorado CollegeW33136208.33%95.00%7.41%94.30%58.3%2044.2
99-DecMinnesota-DuluthW343313512.90%91.43%7.97%93.86%56.9%2346.3
1010-DecMinnesota-DuluthL01339262.56%88.46%7.35%93.31%57.2%2339.6
1113-Janat Western MichiganL00324300.00%90.00%6.87%92.96%56.2%2334.5
1214-Janat Western MichiganW372312622.58%92.31%8.10%92.90%56.0%2642.9
1320-Janat St. CloudL02326437.69%93.02%8.08%92.92%54.4%2642.3
1421-Janat St. CloudW33138387.89%97.37%8.06%93.35%54.0%2943.8
1527-JanOmaha
1628-JanOmaha
1710-FebColorado College
1811-Febat Colorado College
1917-Febat Miami
2018-Febat Miami
2124-FebSt. Cloud
2225-FebSt. Cloud
233-Marat Omaha
244-Marat Omaha

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. PossSea. Pts.Model
14-Novat Western MichiganL036204115.00%85.37%15.00%85.37%32.80%011.6
25-Novat Western MichiganL02531346.45%85.29%9.80%85.33%40.50%017.1
311-NovOmahaL046282914.29%79.31%11.39%83.65%43.20%025
412-NovOmahaL02625268.00%76.92%10.58%82.31%44.40%024.6
518-Novat DenverT11121394.76%97.44%9.60%85.80%42.50%119.5
619-Novat DenverT12226517.69%96.08%9.27%88.18%40.70%219.3
79-DecColorado CollegeT21136272.78%96.30%8.02%89.07%43.1%417.6
810-DecColorado CollegeW33233209.09%90.00%8.18%89.14%45.2%721.5
96-JanSt. CloudW33234318.82%93.55%8.27%89.60%46.0%1024.3
107-JanSt. CloudW341222918.18%96.55%9.06%90.21%45.8%1330.2
1113-Janat North DakotaW363303320.00%90.91%10.13%90.28%45.9%1635.4
1214-Janat North DakotaL01315346.67%91.18%9.97%90.36%44.9%1633.6
1320-Janat OmahaT23335328.57%90.63%9.83%90.38%45.5%1833.9
1421-Janat OmahaL00230220.00%90.91%9.07%90.40%46.3%1831.4
1527-JanWestern Michigan
1628-JanWestern Michigan
1710-Febat St. Cloud
1811-Febat St. Cloud
1917-FebDenver
2018-FebDenver
2123-Febat Minnesota-Duluth
2224-Febat Minnesota-Duluth
233-MarNorth Dakota
244-MarNorth Dakota

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
128-OctNorth DakotaW352382613.16%92.31%13.16%92.31%59.40%356.1
229-OctNorth DakotaW330253012.00%100.00%12.70%96.43%52.90%674.5
34-Novat St. CloudW353312816.13%89.29%13.83%94.05%52.80%962.5
45-Novat St. CloudW353323415.63%91.18%14.29%93.22%51.60%1257.5
511-NovWestern MichiganL034242312.50%82.61%14.00%91.49%51.50%1251.1
612-NovWestern MichiganW32035305.71%100.00%12.43%92.98%52.00%1557
718-Novat OmahaW364342917.65%86.21%13.24%92.00%52.30%1853.8
819-Novat OmahaW332203515.00%94.29%13.39%92.34%50.40%2153.5
99-Decat DenverL03435318.57%87.10%12.77%91.73%50.7%2151.4
1010-Decat DenverW331263911.54%97.44%12.67%92.46%49.6%2452.9
116-JanColorado CollegeT22245184.44%88.89%11.59%92.26%51.6%2652.5
127-JanColorado CollegeL01227253.70%92.00%11.02%92.24%51.7%2651.1
1313-JanSt. CloudL01242292.38%93.10%10.14%92.31%52.3%2649.0
1414-JanSt. CloudW343302613.33%88.46%10.36%92.06%52.4%2949.0
1520-Janat North DakotaW353342414.71%87.50%10.67%91.80%52.8%3249.3
1621-Janat North DakotaW340212919.05%100.00%11.02%92.32%52.3%3551.9
173-FebOmaha
184-FebOmaha
1917-Febat Colorado College
2018-Febat Colorado College
2123-FebMiami
2224-FebMiami
233-Marat Western Michigan
244-Marat Western Michigan

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
128-Octat Minnesota-DuluthL02526387.69%86.84%7.69%86.84%40.60%07.5
229-Octat Minnesota-DuluthL00330250.00%88.00%3.57%87.30%47.10%0-21.3
311-NovDenverT21130253.33%96.00%3.49%89.77%49.40%2-14
412-NovDenverL02324238.33%86.96%4.55%89.19%49.80%2-3.4
518-Novat St. CloudW340402610.00%100.00%6.00%91.24%52.30%519
619-Novat St. CloudW33036368.33%100.00%6.45%93.06%51.80%829.3
79-DecWestern MichiganW351342514.71%96.00%7.73%93.43%52.6%1141.1
810-DecWestern MichiganL01333223.03%86.36%7.11%92.73%53.5%1134.4
96-Janat OmahaW391372624.32%96.15%9.31%93.09%54.1%1449.7
107-Janat OmahaW373362919.44%89.66%10.43%92.73%54.2%1752.9
1113-JanMiamiL03633309.09%80.00%10.31%91.48%54.1%1747.7
1214-JanMiamiW33134158.82%93.33%10.18%91.56%55.1%2048.0
1320-JanMinnesota-DuluthL035243412.50%85.29%10.31%90.96%54.1%2046.0
1421-JanMinnesota-DuluthL00429210.00%80.95%9.64%90.40%54.3%2041.7
1527-Janat Colorado College
1628-Janat Colorado College
173-FebSt. Cloud
184-FebSt. Cloud
1917-Febat Western Michigan
2018-Febat Western Michigan
2124-FebOmaha
2225-FebOmaha
233-Marat Miami
244-Marat Miami

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
14-NovColorado CollegeL01232193.13%89.47%3.13%89.47%62.70%0-19.9
25-NovColorado CollegeW364333518.18%88.57%10.77%88.89%54.60%341.9
311-Novat MiamiW364292820.69%85.71%13.83%87.80%53.40%642.6
412-Novat MiamiW362262523.08%92.00%15.83%88.79%52.90%940.7
518-NovMinnesota-DuluthL046293413.79%82.35%15.44%87.23%51.40%937.5
619-NovMinnesota-DuluthL02335205.71%85.00%13.59%86.96%53.30%941.2
79-Decat St. CloudW331244112.50%97.56%13.46%89.11%50.7%1243.6
810-Decat St. CloudL02424368.33%88.89%12.93%89.08%49.4%1242.1
96-JanNorth DakotaL01926373.85%75.68%12.02%87.27%48.4%1236.3
107-JanNorth DakotaL037293610.34%80.56%11.85%86.50%48.0%1234.4
1113-Janat Colorado CollegeW352282817.86%92.86%12.38%87.02%48.2%1536.1
1214-Janat Colorado CollegeW342293213.79%93.75%12.50%87.60%48.1%1837.2
1320-JanMiamiT13332359.38%91.43%12.23%87.93%48.1%1937.5
1421-JanMiamiW32022309.09%100.00%12.06%88.76%47.7%2238.6
1527-Janat Denver
1628-Janat Denver
173-Febat Minnesota-Duluth
184-Febat Minnesota-Duluth
1910-FebWestern Michigan
2011-FebWestern Michigan
2124-Febat North Dakota
2225-Febat North Dakota
233-MarDenver
244-MarDenver

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
14-NovMinnesota-DuluthL035283110.71%83.87%10.71%83.87%47.50%028.8
25-NovMinnesota-DuluthL03534328.82%84.38%9.68%84.13%49.60%027.3
311-Novat Colorado CollegeW373192336.84%86.96%16.05%84.88%48.50%329.9
412-Novat Colorado CollegeW341372510.81%96.00%14.41%87.39%51.50%639.9
518-NovNorth DakotaL00426400.00%90.00%11.81%88.08%48.80%638
619-NovNorth DakotaL00336360.00%91.67%9.44%88.77%49.00%632.1
72-Decat Western MichiganW330252612.00%100.00%9.76%90.14%49.0%937.1
83-Decat Western MichiganT155233421.74%85.29%10.96%89.47%48.0%1038.4
99-DecOmahaL01341242.44%87.50%9.67%89.30%49.8%1035.2
1010-DecOmahaW342362411.11%91.67%9.84%89.49%50.8%1337.4
116-Janat MiamiL02331346.45%91.18%9.52%89.67%50.5%1336.2
127-Janat MiamiL01429223.45%81.82%9.04%89.17%51.0%1333.0
1313-Janat Minnesota-DuluthW32129426.90%97.62%8.88%90.08%50.1%1633.8
1414-Janat Minnesota-DuluthL034263011.54%86.67%9.05%89.83%49.8%1633.7
1520-JanDenverW33243266.98%92.31%8.86%89.98%50.8%1934.0
1621-JanDenverL01338382.63%92.11%8.38%90.14%50.7%1931.8
173-Febat North Dakota
184-Febat North Dakota
1910-FebMiami
2011-FebMiami
2124-Febat Denver
2225-Febat Denver
233-MarColorado College
244-MarColorado College

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
128-Octat DenverL01326353.85%91.43%3.85%91.43%42.60%0-13.2
229-Octat DenverL02425358.00%88.57%5.88%90.00%42.10%02.4
34-NovMiamiW363412014.63%85.00%9.78%88.89%50.50%335.4
45-NovMiamiW352343014.71%93.33%11.11%90.00%51.20%643.5
511-Novat Minnesota-DuluthW343232417.39%87.50%12.08%89.58%50.90%944
612-Novat Minnesota-DuluthL00230350.00%94.29%10.06%90.50%50.00%940.4
72-DecSt. CloudL00326250.00%88.00%8.78%90.20%50.1%933.6
83-DecSt. CloudT255342314.71%78.26%9.62%88.99%51.3%1135.6
99-Decat North DakotaL01525344.00%85.29%9.09%88.51%50.3%1131.1
1010-Decat North DakotaW331223313.64%96.97%9.44%89.46%49.3%1434.1
1113-JanDenverW330302410.00%100.00%9.49%90.25%49.8%1737.1
1214-JanDenverL02726317.69%77.42%9.36%89.11%49.5%1733.0
1320-JanColorado CollegeW342323512.50%94.29%9.63%89.58%49.3%2035.3
1421-JanColorado CollegeW33031259.68%100.00%9.63%90.22%49.8%2337.5
1527-Janat Miami
1628-Janat Miami
1710-Febat Omaha
1811-Febat Omaha
1917-FebNorth Dakota
2018-FebNorth Dakota
2124-Febat Colorado College
2225-Febat Colorado College
233-MarMinnesota-Duluth
244-MarMinnesota-Duluth

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2015