JOEL GEHRINGER
DOT COM
The Man
The Blog
The Works
The Words
The Lab
The Contacts

2016 NCHC Season Stats & Predictions (Final)



Team GP Goals ForGoals A.Shots ForShots A.Shot %Save %Possession %PreseasonPredicted FinalReal Pts
St. Cloud State 24 104 53 777 690 13.38% 92.32% 53.0% 37 (5) 63 (1) 53 (2)
North Dakota 24 89 49 745 636 11.95% 92.30% 53.9% 41 (3) 58 (2) 59 (1)
Minnesota-Duluth 24 64 44 846 604 7.57% 92.72% 58.3% 44 (2) 47 (3) 37 (4)
Denver 24 74 52 731 739 10.12% 92.96% 49.7% 44 (1) 46 (4) 53 (3)
Miami 24 54 65 660 659 8.18% 90.14% 50.0% 34 (6) 29 (5) 31 (5)
Omaha 24 60 83 693 706 8.66% 88.24% 49.5% 38 (4) 24 (6) 25 (6)
Western Michigan 24 56 103 704 836 7.95% 87.68% 45.7% 29 (7) 15 (7) 17 (7)
Colorado College 24 47 99 594 870 7.91% 88.62% 40.6% 21 (8) 13 (8) 13 (8)

Updated 04-04-2016. All predictions +/-2.475 points.

This chart predicts the final points each NCHC team will earn in the 2015-16 season. Goals for, goals against, shots for, shots against, shot percentage, save percentage, and possession data are real game data.

"Preseason" notes the predicted final points I made prior to the 2015-16 season.

"Predicted Final" represents to-date results of a regression model to predict final points/standings.

Final results of the 2015 model.



More NCAA Hockey Analysis




More NCHC Analysis
Read more NCHC articles and analysis throughout the season.


2016 NCHC Prediction
Oct. 8 - What's statistically expected from NCHC 2016.


PDO in College Hockey
PDO is a misunderstood stat in NCAA, but context is key.

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH%SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-OctNorth DakotaL02521379.52%86.49%9.52%86.49%36.2%08.9
231-OctNorth DakotaL00229420.00%95.24%4.00%91.14%38.8%02.3
36-Novat DenverL035233813.04%86.84%6.85%89.74%38.4%09.8
47-NovDenverL01320325.00%90.63%6.45%89.93%38.4%08.7
520-NovMinnesota DuluthL00519390.00%87.18%5.36%89.36%37.3%01.1
621-NovMinnesota DuluthL00626310.00%80.65%4.35%88.13%38.7%00.0
74-DecMiamiW32133216.06%95.24%4.68%88.75%41.6%33.0
85-DecMiamiW332243612.50%94.44%5.64%89.49%41.4%66.3
911-Decat W MichiganL037283510.71%80.00%6.28%88.42%41.8%65.9
1012-Decat W MichiganL03533389.09%86.84%6.64%88.25%42.3%67.4
118-Janat St. Cloud StateL01227363.70%94.44%6.36%88.83%42.4%68.2
129-Janat St. Cloud StateW352224922.73%95.92%7.54%89.63%41.3%915.0
1322-Janat North DakotaT155232621.74%80.77%8.54%89.13%41.6%1018.0
1423-Janat North DakotaL01519325.26%84.38%8.36%88.82%41.4%1015.9
1529-JanNebraska OmahaW351303716.67%97.30%9.02%89.41%41.6%1321.0
1630-JanNebraska OmahaL01612268.33%76.92%9.00%88.83%41.2%1318.6
175-Febat Minnesota DuluthL035274211.11%88.10%9.13%88.78%41.1%1318.9
186-Febat Minnesota DuluthL02323358.70%91.43%9.11%88.92%41.0%019.2
1918-FebDenverL01428333.57%87.88%8.78%88.87%41.3%1317.9
2020-Febat DenverL01425474.00%91.49%8.54%89.04%40.9%1317.0
2126-Febat MiamiL00331260.00%88.46%8.03%89.02%41.5%1315.3
2227-Febat MiamiL00424440.00%90.91%7.68%89.13%41.2%1313.8
234-MarSt. Cloud StateL02524558.33%90.91%7.71%89.25%40.6%1313.8
245-MarSt. Cloud StateL039233313.04%72.73%7.91%88.62%40.6%1312.6

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
16-NovColorado CollegeW353382313.16%86.96%13.16%86.96%62.3%360.7
27-Novat Colorado CollegeW33132209.38%95.00%11.43%90.70%61.9%664.8
313-Novat Minnesota DuluthW330292710.34%100.00%11.11%94.29%58.6%968.6
414-Novat Minnesota DuluthT11120465.00%97.83%10.08%95.69%50.6%1056.4
54-Decat North DakotaL01523224.35%77.27%9.15%92.75%50.7%1042.7
65-Decat North DakotaL00418370.00%89.19%8.13%92.00%47.8%1032.1
711-DecSt. Cloud StateL025193310.53%84.85%8.38%90.87%46.3%1027.7
812-DecSt. Cloud StateL02629316.90%80.65%8.17%89.54%46.5%1022.7
98-Janat Nebraska OmahaW330193515.79%100.00%8.81%90.88%45.3%1328.6
109-Janat Nebraska OmahaW343182822.22%89.29%9.80%90.73%44.8%1631.9
1115-JanWestern MichiganW353333315.15%90.91%10.43%90.75%45.4%1935.3
1216-JanWestern MichiganT12251323.92%93.75%9.42%91.01%47.3%2033.9
1322-JanMinnesota DuluthW332294610.34%95.65%9.50%91.53%46.4%2335.0
1423-JanMinnesota DuluthW32129356.90%97.14%9.30%91.96%46.3%2635.5
1529-Janat MiamiL01321304.76%90.00%9.07%91.84%46.0%2633.8
1630-Janat MiamiW353312116.13%85.71%9.57%91.58%46.8%2935.9
1712-FebNorth DakotaW364314519.35%91.11%10.21%91.54%46.4%3238.1
1813-FebNorth DakotaW341253516.00%97.14%10.51%91.88%46.1%3540.2
1918-Febat Colorado CollegeW341332812.12%96.43%10.61%92.09%46.5%3841.8
2020-FebColorado CollegeW34147258.51%96.00%10.43%92.25%47.6%4142.9
2126-Febat Western MichiganW351402112.50%95.24%10.57%92.34%48.5%4444.8
2227-Febat Western MichiganW341363311.11%96.97%10.60%92.57%48.7%4745.9
234-MarNebraska OmahaW33034268.82%100.00%10.51%92.84%49.0%5046.8
245-MarNebraska OmahaW32146274.35%96.30%10.12%92.96%49.7%5346.4

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-Octat St. Cloud StateL00315400.00%92.50%0.00%92.50%27.3%00.0
231-Octat St. Cloud StateL01334252.94%88.00%2.04%90.77%43.0%00.0
36-NovW MichiganW32138245.26%95.83%3.45%92.13%49.4%314.1
47-NovW MichiganW32132306.25%95.00%4.20%92.66%52.2%622.7
513-Novat North DakotaL02621329.52%81.25%5.00%90.07%49.8%614.5
614-Novat North DakotaL034143621.43%88.89%6.49%89.83%46.5%616.4
720-NovNebraska OmahaT233242512.50%88.00%7.30%89.60%46.8%819.5
821-NovNebraska OmahaL02332256.25%88.00%7.14%89.43%48.1%819.6
94-Decat Colorado CollegeL01221334.76%93.94%6.93%90.00%47.0%819.4
105-Decat Colorado CollegeL02336245.56%87.50%6.74%89.79%48.5%819.5
118-JanMinnesota DuluthT21125374.00%97.30%6.51%90.65%47.6%1020.4
129-JanMinnesota DuluthL025152213.33%77.27%6.84%89.80%47.2%1018.5
1322-Janat Nebraska OmahaW33134288.82%96.43%7.04%90.30%47.9%1321.8
1423-Janat Nebraska OmahaW373273025.93%90.00%8.42%90.27%47.9%1627.8
1529-JanDenverW331302110.00%95.24%8.54%90.52%48.5%1929.9
1630-JanDenverL035213114.29%83.87%8.83%90.07%48.1%1929.1
175-FebSt. Cloud StateL01536242.78%79.17%8.35%89.52%48.8%1926.1
186-FebSt. Cloud StateW332292310.34%91.30%8.47%89.60%49.2%2227.3
1919-Febat W MichiganW341342811.76%96.43%8.69%89.96%49.5%2529.9
2020-Febat W MichiganL01431283.23%85.71%8.38%89.75%49.7%2528.0
2126-FebColorado CollegeW330263111.54%100.00%8.52%90.29%49.5%2830.2
2227-FebColorado CollegeW34044269.09%100.00%8.56%90.67%50.3%3132.7
234-Marat Minnesota DuluthL00520270.00%81.48%8.29%90.28%50.0%3129.9
245-Marat Minnesota DuluthL01321214.76%85.71%8.18%90.14%50.0%3128.9

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
16-Novat Nebraska OmahaL02447284.26%85.71%4.26%85.71%62.7%018.5
27-Novat Nebraska OmahaL02437215.41%80.95%4.76%83.67%63.2%015.1
313-NovDenverL00327290.00%89.66%3.60%85.90%58.7%08.2
414-NovDenverT21146202.17%95.00%3.18%87.76%61.6%218.2
520-Novat Colorado CollegeW350391912.82%100.00%5.10%89.74%62.6%535.5
621-Novat Colorado CollegeW360312619.35%100.00%7.05%91.61%61.4%847.4
74-DecW MichiganW370512713.73%100.00%8.27%92.94%62.1%1158.7
85-DecW MichiganW362342717.65%92.59%9.29%92.89%61.3%1461.4
911-DecNorth DakotaL00340220.00%86.36%8.24%92.24%61.6%1455.3
1012-DecNorth DakotaL00338200.00%85.00%7.44%91.63%62.0%1450.6
118-Janat MiamiT11137252.70%96.00%7.03%92.05%61.8%1549.7
129-Janat MiamiW352221522.73%86.67%7.80%91.76%61.7%1851.8
1315-JanSt. Cloud StateL01329263.45%88.46%7.53%91.48%61.0%1848.4
1416-JanSt. Cloud StateT11139222.56%95.45%7.16%91.74%61.3%1948.1
1522-Janat DenverL02346294.35%89.66%6.93%91.57%61.3%1946.0
1623-Janat DenverL01235292.86%93.10%6.69%91.69%60.8%1942.0
175-FebColorado CollegeW353422711.90%88.89%7.03%91.50%60.8%2245.9
186-FebColorado CollegeW33235238.57%91.30%7.11%91.49%60.8%2546.1
1919-Febat North DakotaL01233253.03%92.00%6.92%91.52%60.6%2545.0
2020-Febat North DakotaL01228273.57%92.59%6.79%91.58%60.2%2543.8
2126-Febat St. Cloud StateW341355011.43%98.00%7.00%92.18%58.9%2844.3
2227-Febat St. Cloud StateW32127267.41%96.15%7.02%92.36%58.6%3144.4
234-MarMiamiW350272018.52%100.00%7.39%92.62%58.6%3446.8
245-MarMiamiW331212114.29%95.24%7.57%92.72%58.3%3747.4

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-Octat Colorado CollegeW352372113.51%90.48%13.51%90.48%63.8%372.0
231-Octat Colorado CollegeW32042294.76%100.00%8.86%96.00%61.2%669.6
313-NovMiamiW362322118.75%90.48%11.71%94.37%61.0%972.0
414-NovMiamiW343361411.11%78.57%11.56%91.76%63.4%1272.0
520-Novat St. Cloud StateW343263815.38%92.11%12.14%91.87%58.4%1564.8
621-Novat St. Cloud StateL01629213.45%71.43%10.89%88.89%58.4%1549.3
74-DecDenverW351222322.73%95.65%12.05%89.82%57.3%1855.6
85-DecDenverW340371810.81%100.00%11.88%90.81%58.5%2160.3
911-Decat Minnesota DuluthW330224013.64%100.00%12.01%92.44%55.7%2461.4
1012-Decat Minnesota DuluthW330203815.00%100.00%12.21%93.54%53.5%2762.6
1115-JanNebraska OmahaL034292310.34%82.61%12.05%92.66%53.7%2759.2
1216-JanNebraska OmahaW351232921.74%96.55%12.68%93.02%53.0%3062.1
1322-JanColorado CollegeT255362313.89%78.26%12.79%92.01%53.6%3260.2
1423-JanColorado CollegeW351321915.63%94.74%13.00%92.16%54.2%3562.5
1529-Janat W MichiganW32030316.67%100.00%12.58%92.78%53.9%3862.2
1630-Janat W MichiganW32137295.41%96.55%12.04%93.05%54.0%4160.9
1712-Febat DenverL04645318.89%80.65%11.78%92.19%54.4%4157.5
1813-Febat DenverL01435252.86%84.00%11.23%91.75%54.7%4154.0
1919-FebMinnesota DuluthW32125338.00%96.97%11.09%92.09%54.0%4453.7
2020-FebMinnesota DuluthW32127287.41%96.43%10.93%92.32%53.8%4753.4
2126-Febat Nebraska OmahaW342242216.67%90.91%11.15%92.27%53.7%5054.0
2227-Febat Nebraska OmahaW341372710.81%96.30%11.13%92.45%53.9%5354.9
236-MarW MichiganW381353222.86%96.88%11.70%92.68%53.9%5658.0
247-MarW MichiganW354272118.52%80.95%11.95%92.30%53.9%5957.9

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-Octat W MichiganL02433256.06%84.00%6.06%84.00%56.9%09.4
231-Octat W MichiganL01638372.63%83.78%4.23%83.87%53.4%0-4.6
36-NovMinnesota DuluthW342284714.29%95.74%7.07%88.99%47.6%317.3
47-NovMinnesota DuluthW342213719.05%94.59%9.17%90.41%45.1628.4
520-Novat MiamiT133252412.00%87.50%9.66%90.00%46.0%730.2
621-Novat MiamiW332253212.00%93.75%10.00%90.59%45.7%1033.3
74-Decat St. Cloud StateL01427263.70%84.62%9.14%89.91%46.4%1028.0
85-Decat St. Cloud StateW372353320.00%93.94%10.78%90.42%47.1%1337.6
98-JanDenverL00335190.00%84.21%9.36%90.00%48.8%1332.1
109-JanDenverL034281810.71%77.78%9.49%89.26%49.7%1331.4
1115-Janat North DakotaW343232917.39%89.66%10.06%89.30%49.3%1633.4
1216-Janat North DakotaL01529233.45%78.26%9.51%88.57%49.8%1629.2
1322-JanMiamiL01328343.57%91.18%9.07%88.80%49.4%1627.6
1423-JanMiamiL037302710.00%74.07%9.14%87.83%49.6%1624.9
1529-Janat Colorado CollegeL01537302.70%83.33%8.60%87.53%50.1%1622.1
1630-Janat Colorado CollegeW361261223.08%91.67%9.40%87.64%50.8%1927.0
1712-FebW MichiganW32125298.00%96.55%9.33%88.17%50.6%2228.1
1813-FebW MichiganW363333418.18%91.18%9.89%88.37%50.5%2531.1
1919-FebSt. Cloud StateL01433223.03%81.82%9.48%88.10%51.0%2529.0
2020-FebSt. Cloud StateL03632279.38%77.78%9.48%87.61%51.1%2527.6
2126-FebNorth DakotaL02422249.09%83.33%9.46%87.44%51.0%2526.8
2227-FebNorth DakotaL01427373.70%89.19%9.22%87.54%50.6%2525.5
234-Marat DenverL00326340.00%91.18%8.86%87.73%50.2%2524.1
245-Marat DenverL01227463.70%95.65%8.66%88.24%49.5%2524.1

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-OctMiamiW33040157.50%100.00%7.50%100.00%72.7%3111.3
231-OctMiamiW331253412.00%97.06%9.23%97.96%57.0%669.7
313-Novat W MichiganW352292817.24%92.86%11.70%96.10%55.0%971.0
414-Novat W MichiganW3111452824.44%96.43%15.83%96.19%57.0%1292.6
520-NovNorth DakotaL03438267.89%84.62%14.12%93.89%57.5%1278.4
621-NovNorth DakotaW361212928.57%96.55%15.66%94.38%55.3%1583.1
74-DecNebraska OmahaW341262715.38%96.30%15.63%94.65%54.5%1882.7
85-DecNebraska OmahaL02733356.06%80.00%14.40%92.34%53.7%1868.4
911-Decat DenverW352331915.15%89.47%14.48%92.12%54.6%2169.4
1012-Decat DenverW362312919.35%93.10%14.95%92.22%54.3%2471.4
118-JanColorado CollegeW32136275.56%96.30%14.01%92.59%54.6%2768.9
129-JanColorado CollegeL02549224.08%77.27%12.81%91.54%56.0%2762.4
1315-Janat Minnesota DuluthW331262911.54%96.55%12.73%91.95%55.4%3062.4
1416-Janat Minnesota DuluthT21122394.55%97.44%12.33%92.51%54.0%3260.4
1522-JanW MichiganW382313625.81%94.44%13.20%92.67%53.4%3563.8
1623-JanW MichiganW373322821.88%89.29%13.73%92.46%53.4%3865.5
175-Febat MiamiW351243620.83%97.22%14.05%92.81%52.6%4166.9
186-Febat MiamiL02323298.70%89.66%13.83%92.64%52.2%4164.8
1919-Febat Nebraska OmahaW341223318.18%96.97%13.99%92.90%51.6%4465.6
2020-Febat Nebraska OmahaW363273222.22%90.63%14.36%92.77%51.3%4766.4
2126-FebMinnesota DuluthL01450352.00%88.57%13.42%92.53%51.8%4762.2
2227-FebMinnesota DuluthL01226273.85%92.59%13.06%92.53%51.7%4760.4
234-Marat Colorado CollegeW35255249.09%91.67%12.77%92.50%52.7%5060.4
245-Marat Colorado CollegeW393332327.27%86.96%13.38%92.32%53.0%5362.9

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
130-OctNebraska OmahaW342253316.00%93.94%16.00%93.94%43.1%368.0
231-OctNebraska OmahaW361373816.22%97.37%16.13%95.77%46.6%678.3
36-Novat MiamiL01224384.17%94.74%12.79%95.41%44.1%659.8
47-Novat MiamiL01220325.00%93.75%11.32%95.04%42.9%651.0
513-NovSt. Cloud StateL02528297.14%82.76%10.45%92.94%44.1%641.4
614-NovSt. Cloud StateL011128453.57%75.56%9.26%89.30%43.0%623.0
74-Decat Minnesota DuluthL00727510.00%86.27%7.94%88.72%41.5%613.9
85-Decat Minnesota DuluthL02627347.41%82.35%7.87%88.00%41.9%611.6
911-DecColorado CollegeW373352820.00%89.29%9.56%88.11%43.4%920.8
1012-DecColorado CollegeW353383313.16%90.91%10.03%88.37%44.5%1224.8
1115-Janat DenverL03533339.09%84.85%9.94%88.07%45.0%1223.9
1216-Janat DenverT22232516.25%96.08%9.60%88.99%44.3%1424.8
1322-Janat St. Cloud StateL02836315.56%74.19%9.23%88.03%45.0%1420.7
1423-Janat St. Cloud StateL037283210.71%78.13%9.33%87.40%45.1%1419.2
1529-JanNorth DakotaL00231300.00%93.33%8.69%87.73%45.5%1417.9
1630-JanNorth DakotaL01229373.45%94.59%8.37%88.17%45.4%1417.8
1712-Febat Nebraska OmahaL01229253.45%92.00%8.09%88.33%45.8%1417.6
1813-Febat Nebraska OmahaL03634338.82%81.82%8.13%87.99%46.1%1416.9
1919-FebMiamiL01428343.57%88.24%7.91%88.01%46.0%1416.0
2020-FebMiamiW341283114.29%96.77%8.21%88.40%46.1%1718.6
2126-FebDenverL01521404.76%87.50%8.09%88.35%45.6%1717.4
2227-FebDenverL01433363.03%88.89%7.83%88.37%45.7%1716.5
234-Marat North DakotaL01832353.13%77.14%7.61%87.89%45.8%1714.0
245-Marat North DakotaL045212719.05%81.48%7.95%87.68%45.7%1714.7

Site designed by Joel Gehringer
2015